The future of Indian consumer markets

Consumption kept the Indian economy going long after investment slowed, but over the past year, even this narrative has started to fray at the edges Will consumer spending in India shake off its sluggishness and go back to growing at a fast clip and in turn drive economic growth? The short-term answer of the next two years is that (1) the richer parts of it will step up spending in the next year and be the vanguard of growth, and since they account for at least 40% of all spending and over half of income, this is good news, and (2) however, we must be careful not to fall into our oft-repeated trap—assuming that the yo-yo upward growth that we are about to see as a result of release in pent-up demand is the right growth number to project for the future. The medium-term answer of the next five years […]

The Lamplit Sales Graph

Festivals, the world over, are usually boom consumption time-when people know they have to spend, they are in a mood to want to spend, and they do plan ahead for the expenditure. Festival sales are therefore a barometer of how good or bad consumers are feeling about the size of their wallets and about spending. In consumption-driven economies, that is a critical determinant of economic growth. If spending doesn’t happen even at festival time, it is pretty bad news and a barometer of how good or bad the consumer economy is, the same way the prices of bellwether stocks tell a story. Last year, the world watched with bated breath to see what retail sales in America would be during the holiday season of Christmas and New Year. It was this indicator that would reflect exactly how bad things really were. If people decided to economise on that most sacred […]

Willing Spirit, Weak Flesh

It isn’t easy to imagine the sort of pressure on public goods when a billion people – mostly young, slowly getting richer – aspire for a better life, especially when infrastructure and public goods are already of poor quality and in short supply. This is the environment in which the great Indian consumer story will “live” for the next several years, shaping consumer behaviour and throwing up unique market opportunities quite different from those of the past two decades. Toilets; affordable housing; health care; old-age homes; schools and colleges; power and water; police; garbage clearance; bandwidth; buses, trains and metros; playgrounds and parks, and many such improvers of life are just not available. Domestic tourism is burgeoning, thanks to more money, but there are no decent public conveniences. Next to premium Mumbai apartments with breathtaking sea views, the rocks in low tide are an unending public toilet for people living […]

The Consumption Journey

Think local; it’s pointless to use western standards to measure India’s consumption base. India’s domestic consumption story has been told in terms of income based number crunching on the size of India’s middle class, and sales data from companies. After rural consumption came to the rescue in 2008-09-10, the story of rural consumption being the bulwark of future consumption has gained currency, almost as if the urban frontier has been conquered. Facts viewed through the lens of households help to do a reality check on existing mental models and numbers about India’s consumption story but are hard to get. We therefore welcome the new 2011 edition of the Indian Readers Survey (IRS) report, Guide to Indian Markets. Based on a rolling annual all India sample of 250,000 households, it is a standard market planning database, vetted by the Media Research Users Council (MRUC) and conducted by Hansa Research for over 10 […]

What Consumers Really Want

With more competition and more cautious consumers, companies will need smart marketing moves It is business plan season again. Most managers will argue for their new targets based on some rule of thumb linking overall market growth of their sector to GDP growth. Aiding them will be analysts’ views – mostly people who believe that all markets follow the same logic as the stock market – on whether consumer demand is ‘still strong’ or ‘softening’ based on quarterly results of companies and year-on-year comparisons. Using the health of consumer demand to assess the health of GDP growth, and using that, in turn, to predict consumer demand, is a bit confusing to some of us. Intuitively, the idea is sound that even with low GDP growth, companies can find healthy consumer demand for their business by persuading consumers to buy from them.. That is why our IT companies have healthy top […]

The Business of Financial Inclusion

The discussion on financial inclusion ought to focus a lot more on building an economically viable and consumer acceptable business model, with a specially designed regulatory ecosystem appropriate for that model. Evangelism or moral pressure to force banks to serve those not so far served by them cannot help square a circle. But a new tetrahedron that is superior to both the circle and the square can be built if we abandon orthodoxy and do not constrain the business model by saying: (a) Financial inclusion has to be driven by banks because we know how to regulate them, and should not be driven by a new ecosystem that does not have an existing bank as the lead; (b) it has to be offered below a particular price point which is defined either by some fuzzy-logic comfort level or by a mandated number based on somebody’s test of reasonableness (not the […]

Innovate India’s Way To Modernity

In fact, the newer markets of the world often create a “champion’s disadvantage”, because most champion companies are prisoners of their past success formulae. They are far too deeply vested in every way in the religion and the ritual that they have built so far and the risk of change is real. The same applies to western academia, who have built knowledge based on the experiences of global businesses. Their predicaments are understandable. But it is puzzling why Indian business executives and thinkers, who do not carry any such baggage, don’t think differently and originally. Perhaps, we need to reflect on whether there is an incumbent advantage or disadvantage for reigning champions of the developed world. If they have an incumbent disadvantage, then the new kid on the block (Indian business) is not a challenger risking a bloody nose but a leading-edge innovator. It’s what CK Prahalad calls the “next […]

Drunken Man’s Walk

Unprepared for Our Consumption

Danger: A Vulnerable Consumer Base

Why are car sales zooming? Here’s an explanation. Because it is only the rich who buy cars – car penetration is a bit over 20% in the topmost quintile of Consumer India (i.e. the richest 20% of India), and 5% or less in the remaining quintiles. Car sales also come out of corporate pockets as much as out of consumer pockets in this segment of income. and Rich India is actually back to feeling comfortable – the stock market is back up again, and everyone is feeling secure looking at their NAVs climbing back. Banks are lending for car purchases again, corporate profits have been very good and tax planning time is near The economic typhoon seems to have mildly hit and then gone away, adding to an increase in level of this consumer’s confidence. Pragmatic consumption is back again, and a new car with a bank loan is a […]