The Shining, Growing Tip of the Iceberg
Consumer Trends

The Shining, Growing Tip of the Iceberg

At my last two speaking engagements, people said they were surprised by my non-optimism (read that as ‘gung ho’ ness) about what’s happening in Consumer India. One of them was on whether values in India are changing (answer: some changes, mostly morphing change, “this as well as that” compromises, new ways of doing old things; let’s not confuse changes in ritual with changes in religion). The other was about what I saw as the latest in Consumer India, viewed through the economic – demographic – consumption lens. I said that none of the data that I had seen had fundamentally changed my view of the past few years that it was forging ahead on the consumption track, with all lights green and no stop signs visible; But though full throttle, it was a large mass moving at a modest speed with modest and modestly increasing acceleration; few rich getting richer […]

November 21, 2005 0 Comments
Food for Thought – Part II
Consumer Trends

Food for Thought – Part II

In my previous column, I had wondered why the processed food ready to eat / ready to cook market had not blossomed, despite consumer conditions being fertile in terms of changing attitudes and lifestyle. I had concluded that it was due to suppliers not being able to get their product performance – price equations right, so as to create greater value for the consumer compared to existing traditional options and still be financially viable. Thinking about it some more, I am coming to the conclusion that the “in-home convenient eating” market has also happened, only we don’t notice it because it’s format is different from branded packaged retort packs! There are more and more women supplying dabbas of home made food in everyone of them big cities, with Bombay in the lead; their consumers are and not just to bachelors and hostel dwellers but homes as well. The Maharaj or […]

March 13, 2005 0 Comments
Food for Thought – Part I
Consumer Trends

Food for Thought – Part I

Middle and Upper income India, the bulk of which is urban, has grown well above the national average in terms of number of households and the quantum of income growth. With this growth, two of the three of the “roti, kapda and makaan” trinity have happened. The Kapda boom is happening. Clothing expenditure and behaviour of this target group has definitely changed and is vibrant with experimentation. Of course, the old and the new co exist very comfortably, but the rigid structures of traditional clothing have definitely changed, be it at weddings or the work place. The Makaan buying boom has happened and the “where in my life cycle do I buy a house” notions have completely changed. The average age of the home loan taker has dropped by ten years almost, in less than a decade, and we could be in a rolling mortgage, perennial home up gradation cycle, […]

March 13, 2005 0 Comments
The New Change Wave – ‘Womanism’
Consumer Trends

The New Change Wave – ‘Womanism’

There is a slow but definite wave of change happening – one that politicians and marketers would do well to ride on, rather than ignore. Women are on the move in India, inching their way away from being doormats, away from the socially ordained straitjacket that Hindi movies of yesteryear so glorified “yours is not to question why, yours is but to do … and die…in the finest tradition of the adarsh bharatiya nari”. I deliberately chose the words “inching their way away from” rather than “marching determinedly towards breaking free”, because that is the truth of the matter. So, why is this slow burn such a big deal to qualify as a change wave? Because, force = mass x acceleration, and the force of change caused by a large mass of people moving even at a very slow speed is huge enough to qualify as a change wave. Because […]

July 21, 2003 0 Comments
Connecting With The Future Consumer India
Consumer Trends

Connecting With The Future Consumer India

A staggering 45% of our population is below the age of 19. Born after 1984, this is our post liberalization generation. Even the oldest of them would have been a mere 7 years old in 1991, when liberalization happened. 6 out of 10 households have at least one member who is from the liberalization generation. This is the first non-socialist, market economy generation, growing up in the thick of the information revolution, the connectivity boom, coalition politics, IT enabled everything and the rise of the service economy. And as this age cohort wends its way through life, it will be shaping, or rather re shaping markets, and the fortunes of marketers. There are a 100 million 17 to 21 year olds (as of 2003) who, in the next four to eight years, will be hopefully in a position to earn their own money and who will be wielding greater decision […]

May 1, 2003 0 Comments
Understanding the Low Income Consumer
Consumer Trends

Understanding the Low Income Consumer

It is now well accepted that there are two answers to the question “what is the market size and the appropriate market strategy for the Indian market” One is the low pain – low gain answer and the other is the high pain – high gain answer. The low pain – low gain answer is to size and target the top of the iceberg (from ‘tip’ of the iceberg many companies have inched their way downwards to the ‘top’ of the ice berg!) comprising well off consumers (still far poorer than consumers in most other parts of the world). The game can then be played with comfortable cost and price structures, using obvious, familiar, proven business models and product designs. The good news is that unlike a decade ago, this game is reasonably sized and has the assurance of sustained growth. However, if you have the stomach for it, there […]

November 1, 2002 0 Comments
Seeing The Road Ahead By Understanding Demand Segments
Consumer Trends

Seeing The Road Ahead By Understanding Demand Segments

It is the same question that everyone is asking – why are demand patterns so illogical, why do usual predictors of good or bad demand like monsoons or consumer confidence or low GDP growth not apply across the board to all categories? Ask some sectors about recovery and they say, “well its already beginning to happen” and ask others and they are seeing very slow change, if any at all. Why are car and two wheeler and telecom and air conditioner markets growing, but FMCG markets groaning, and that too in a year where GDP growth was quite low? And if the reason is rural market not having money because of poor performance of agriculture, then where did the money come from? The rural market has behaved in a very prima donna-ish manner – it boomed, then it busted, and now it favours some categories and not others. The urban […]

May 1, 2002 0 Comments
The Real Ice Phenomenon
Consumer Trends

The Real Ice Phenomenon

The “ICE age Indian consumer” is now a mandatory topic at most marketing conferences and meetings. There is a disturbing mental model that seems to be embedded in the popular view – that of a person who is Internet savvy, cell phone and broadband happy and hangs out at interesting sites both real and virtual. Often the word ICE and Netizen are used interchangeably. The dominant logic seems to be that this is a small yet significant number; so what if it is just the tip of the Consumer India iceberg, its growth rates are astounding and this will soon gather critical mass and define the mainstream consumer. Sounds scarily like the Great Indian Middle Class story, revisited! But what is more disturbing is that in the preoccupation with the tip of the ICEberg, we seem to be missing the main event of the ICE age and focusing on the […]

January 23, 2001 0 Comments
Phase Two of Consumer Demand
Consumer Trends

Phase Two of Consumer Demand

Everyone is heaving a sigh of relief that the dark clouds of sluggish consumer demand are finally lifting. However, the mood in corporate corridors is one of qualified optimism. There seems to be a consensus that while there is a clear resurgence in consumer demand, the heady growths that we saw in the first half of the nineties will never return – happy times are here again, but the golden days are gone forever. According to me, the main challenge going forward, is not about learning to be pragmatic and accepting the inevitability of slower growth rates; nor is it about changing the definition of what good corporate performance is, or building muscle and redoubling marketing effort to try and achieve past growth rates. The main challenge stems from the fact that the source and nature of future consumer demand growth will be quite different from that of the past. […]

December 14, 1999 0 Comments
India: Understanding the Process of Change
Consumer Trends

India: Understanding the Process of Change

Corporate India has been acutely aware that they must keep a close watch on their marketplace, since change is in the air. Yet, despite constantly being on the look out, many companies have been caught unawares by the changes that actually happen in their market place. Every time they looked, it seemed like it was business as usual, and suddenly, one day, it became a totally different world, with dramatic shifts in market structure and definite changes in consumer behaviour, causing them to suddenly scramble and gear up, post facto. “When did we blink”, is the question often asked, and the answer is never obvious. Now, galvanised by millennium fever, there is redoubled effort to understand the nature and the distance of the journey Consumer India has made in the past decade, and to ‘see’ what the road ahead could look like. Most participants in such exercises have confessed that […]

October 14, 1999 0 Comments
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