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Phase Two of Consumer Demand
Consumer Trends

Phase Two of Consumer Demand

Everyone is heaving a sigh of relief that the dark clouds of sluggish consumer demand are finally lifting. However, the mood in corporate corridors is one of qualified optimism. There seems to be a consensus that while there is a clear resurgence in consumer demand, the heady growths that we saw in the first half of the nineties will never return – happy times are here again, but the golden days are gone forever. According to me, the main challenge going forward, is not about learning to be pragmatic and accepting the inevitability of slower growth rates; nor is it about changing the definition of what good corporate performance is, or building muscle and redoubling marketing effort to try and achieve past growth rates. The main challenge stems from the fact that the source and nature of future consumer demand growth will be quite different from that of the past. […]

December 14, 1999
India: Understanding the Process of Change
Consumer Trends

India: Understanding the Process of Change

Corporate India has been acutely aware that they must keep a close watch on their marketplace, since change is in the air. Yet, despite constantly being on the look out, many companies have been caught unawares by the changes that actually happen in their market place. Every time they looked, it seemed like it was business as usual, and suddenly, one day, it became a totally different world, with dramatic shifts in market structure and definite changes in consumer behaviour, causing them to suddenly scramble and gear up, post facto. “When did we blink”, is the question often asked, and the answer is never obvious. Now, galvanised by millennium fever, there is redoubled effort to understand the nature and the distance of the journey Consumer India has made in the past decade, and to ‘see’ what the road ahead could look like. Most participants in such exercises have confessed that […]

October 14, 1999
e-Hype: The Great Indian Middle Class revisited?
Business Strategy

e-Hype: The Great Indian Middle Class revisited?

The whole discourse on ‘Internet India’ in the media and in business forums leaves me with an uneasy feeling of déjà vu. It sounds a little too close to the “size and opportunity of the Great Indian Middle Class” saga that was enacted out not too long ago. Small current markets were forecasted to grow to huge numbers, born out of the analogy school of forecasting that applied ‘elsewhere’ metrics of penetration, per capita consumption and growth to the humongous numbers of people in India. To the quantitative analysis, we then added the qualitative element – the Indian consumer, we believed, was ’emerging’ and the ugly duckling was about to become the beautiful swan. The result was a very seductive picture of market opportunity that was expected to happen with a momentum of its own, powered by the ‘who can resist progress’ compulsion. What followed, as they say, is history. […]

September 14, 1999
The Reality of the Indian Market
Demand Drivers

The Reality of the Indian Market

It is perhaps time to take stock of all that we have learnt in these past six or seven years about the nature of the Indian market, now that it has emerged from its shackles of socialism, monopolies and hardly visible income growths. Lesson 1: First and foremost, a generic model of market structure has emerged, with five tiers of demand, ranging from “anywhere in the world consumers who just happen to be in India” to “just escaped from poverty and entering the arena of consumption”. In order to fully exploit the potential of this multi tiered consumer base, there is no escape from a multi pronged product strategy, ranging from “as good as anywhere in the world quality at world prices”, all the way to “adequate quality at affordable prices”. The slight diversion that we took in the recent past, in believing that there was a huge and homogenous […]

September 1, 1999
Consumer Durables In The Villages: Who’s Buying?
Demand Drivers

Consumer Durables In The Villages: Who’s Buying?

Consumer Durables In The Villages: Who’s Buying?The Economic Times – August 1999 Rural India’s recently discovered predilection to enthusiastically consume everything from shampoo to motorcycles has been the subject of much discussion. However the dominant view of the market is as seen through the product window (i.e. from the perspective of “how much of what is being bought”). To gain a better insight into the structure and drivers of consumer demand in Rural India, we need to also develop a view of the market by looking at it through the consumer or ‘people’ window (i.e. from the perspective of “how many of what kind of people are buying”). We need to enlarge the discussion from ‘the market’ to also include ‘the consumers’; from not just what is being bought, but also who is buying; and from thinking ‘product segments’ to also thinking consumer segments. This article presents one vignette of […]

August 1, 1999
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